Nate Silver

The Signal and the Noise

Nate Silver

Talk: The Signal and the Noise

In the 2012 presidential election, Silver correctly predicted the winner of all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Between his electoral and popular vote predictions, he was by some measures the most successful major forecaster of the presidential election. Silver's predictions of U.S. Senate races were correct in 31 of 33 states; he predicted Republican victory in North Dakota and Montana, where Democrats won. --Wikipedia

Nate Silver

Nate Silver is an American statistician and writer. From sabermetrics to elections, he gleans new insights from big data. You can find his work at FiveThirtyEight.

The Book

Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of uncertainty. This is the “prediction paradox”: the more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.

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